S&P 500 Tops Record Highs, Bitcoin Rallies As Traders Raise Rate Cut Bets: What's Moving Markets Wednesday?

U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 setting fresh record highs after a surprise decline in private payrolls boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The ADP National Employment Report showed private employers shed 33,000 jobs in June 2025, the first monthly contraction since March 2023. The sharp miss reinforced market bets that the Fed may ease policy sooner than expected. Economists now expect Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report to show a slowdown from 139,000 to 110,000 jobs.

Rate cut odds rose sharply. Markets now see a 25% chance of a July cut and fully price in a reduction by September. A second cut by December is also fully priced in.

The S&P 500 jumped above 6,200 points, notching new record highs. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8% to 22,650, nearing its all-time peak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average held steady around 44,500. Small-cap stocks outperformed for the second consecutive session.

On the trade front, ...