Big Bank Stocks Soared In 2025—But This Earnings Season Could Shake Things Up

Wall Street's biggest banks have rallied hard in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500 with an average 18% year-to-date gain, but as second-quarter earnings roll in starting July 15, analysts warn the easy gain may already be priced in.

In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala said this earnings season may represent a “breather” for the group.

While structural tailwinds remain strong, especially for names like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), the absence of fresh catalysts in the second half could slow the pace of gains unless earnings surprises deliver.

Bank

YTD return as of July 9, 2025

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)

22.94%

Citigroup Inc.

22.4%

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)

13.84

Wells Fargo & Company

17.44

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)

19.86

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC)

7.83

JPMorgan Sets The Bar—But It's Already High

According to Poonawala, JPMorgan is expected to post earnings per share of $4.48 for the second quarter, slightly above consensus.

Net interest ...